The most in-depth SWNT Match Preview Ever: SWNT v Ukraine.
This Friday night Scotland will take on Ukraine in a crucial 2023 World Cup qualifier in the Polish city of Rzezsów. With Hungary and Ukraine both still to play each other as well as facing trips to face runaway leaders, and already qualified, Spain to come, a win for Scotland would have them in a strong position to secure the Group B play-off spot with just a September trip to the Faroe Islands remaining.
A fixture originally scheduled for April this year, the continued Russian invasion of Ukraine has meant that Scotland now face the tricky task of getting a result against a side who will have overcome far more than hamstring injuries and empty water bottles to take the pitch come Friday. It will not only be a significant test for Scotland on the pitch but also off it with Ukranian officials hoping that Rzezsów’s close proximity to their homeland’s border will encourage a big support, similar to the 12,631 who welcomed the men’s side competitive return against Armenia in Łódź earlier this month.
Scotland’s search for consistent form continues
Even without the anticipated and understandable emotional backdrop that will be present as anthems are sung prior to kick off at what will be a warm, but not intimidatingly so, Stal Stadion Rzezsów, Scotland were set to face a tricky challenge as Martinéz Losa still tinkers in the hope of finding a consistent formula for success.
Following the 1–1 draw with Ukraine at Hampden, where an injury time Abi Harrison header rescued a point the SWNT run has continued to be patchy. Flecks of promise muted by the presence of some familiar frustrations.
The record equalling 8–0 loss in Seville against Spain that followed that draw in November was a night to remember for all the wrong reasons, with only goalkeeper Lee Alexander emerging with any notable credit to her name. A dispiriting low that left fans with as many questions as they have had answers since Martinéz Losa’s appointment in 2021. Spain were good, Scotland were not.
The Pinatar Cup campaign in February was a chance to blow away the memories of that game however Scotland’s progress continued to be up-and-down. In a tournament where the Spanish coach rotated frequently a poor 3–1 defeat against a Wales side Scotland had defeated a year earlier in Llanelli was followed by an improved performance and a dominant 2–0 win against Slovakia. Scotland’s tournament would end with a 0–0 draw against Hungary, a damp squib of a game with the main highlight being Eartha Cummings debut penalty shootout heroics as Scotland ended the tournament in fifth place.
With the Ukraine fixture postponed Spain would provide the next World Cup Qualifying test, this time at Hampden in front of a competitive record crowd of 7,804. It would be another defeat as Scotland would lose 2–0 to one of the favourites for this summer’s Euros but there was heart to be taken from an organised display although what gear the Spanish were playing at only they will know in a second half which at times mimicked a game of attack versus defence. Positives but a defeat nonetheless.
Wing backs or right backs and absentees on the wing.
Ukraine will be a different test to the Spanish, and expectations will dictate that Scotland should spend a greater amount of time on the front foot. Since the beginning of his reign Martinéz Losa has called upon 34 players but recently he has established what appears to be a settled side.
Lee Alexander as number one, a crucial late save against Ukraine a reminder of her ability to pull out a big stop when the moment requires, and experienced duo Rachel Corsie and Jen Beattie are established at the heart of the defence in front of her. Rangers full back Nicola Docherty has made the left-hand side of the defence her own but who slots in on the other flank is probably the biggest decision to be made come Friday.
Rangers’ Rachel McLauchlan missed the end of the SWPL season through injury, Kirsty Smith has faced similar fitness struggles at Manchester United and Rachael Boyle, who has filled in at right back for both club and country, has taken a step back from playing as she expects her second child. Lisa Evans, who recently turned her loan from Arsenal to West Ham United into a permanent move is the most likely to fill the role. Nominally a winger she has also played wing-back for both Arsenal and the Hammers and took up the position against Spain at Hampden. If Martinéz Losa wants to be more defensively solid he could bring in Sophie Howard, or even slide the Leicester City defender alongside Corsie and Beattie to produce a back three, converting full backs to wing backs in the wide areas. The role is not only important in defence but it is also an important supplementary piece to Martinéz Losa’s attacking puzzle, particularly in an area of the park where Ukraine have looked vulnerable.
Moving up the pitch the Spaniard has switched between 4–3–3 and 4–2–3–1 in recent contests. Against Spain he deployed the latter with the increasingly talismanic Erin Cuthbert, who has had an exceptional season at club level with Chelsea, partnered by 23-year-old Rangers midfielder Sam Kerr at the base. Kerr brings energy and drive with ball at her feet but in a midfield that is still searching for an element of defensive structure Celtic’s Lisa Robertson could come back into the side, while not as dynamic as Kerr she has been the closest Scotland have come to replacing Leanne Crichton since the current Motherwell player/assistant manager’s international retirement at the start of 2021.
Alternatively either Lucy Graham or Christie Murray could offer different options as a deep-lying playmaker, with Graham in particular a regular feature under the Spanish boss. Kerr competed well against a talented Spanish midfield and would be my pick, both her and Cuthbert match creative instincts with tenacity on and off the ball and this could be the start of a fruitful partnership for the qualifying campaigns to come.
Caroline Weir should play in advance of those two and then some more decisions are required with the attacking three. Claire Emslie will be expected to take to her blocks on the left, but with Christy Grimshaw and Kirsty Hanson both unavailable, Lizzie Arnot could earn a rare start after another impressive domestic season. Arnot’s strength is her two-footedness, and with Emslie conditioned to hit the byline having a player who can cut inside to release space for a partnering full-back behind could add variety to the Scottish attack.
Alternatively and as was the case against Spain, Abi Harrison could see her role shift from the focal point of the attack to the right hand-side with Martha Thomas leading the line. Both Harrison and Thomas impress with their work-rate but there is a growing feeling that Thomas is the striker Scotland should look to build their attack around, her penalty box guile difficult to replicate when unavailable through injury. There are other options of course too, the experienced Jane Ross and Serie A’s top goalscorer last season Lana Clelland have both provided important alternatives when game state requires a change and it was Clelland’s introduction that finally saw Scotland score that equaliser against Ukraine.
Matters bigger than football
Despite that draw at Hampden and those two defeats to the Spanish Scotland remain in pole position to secure a play-off spot as while we were humbled in Seville, Ukraine failed to capitalise on their positive result in Glasgow, falling to a surprise 4–2 defeat away to Hungary on the same evening. It would be the last time the Ukranians have lost as they’d follow up that defeat with victory in February’s Turkish Cup, a tournament similar to the Pinatar Cup albeit featuring nations further down the developmental totem pole. A 1–0 victory over Venezuela was followed by 2–0 wins against Uzbekistan and Bulgaria as they emerged with a 100% record. The positives that Cortés could take from that trip to the Antalyan coast were soon brought into sharp perspective as just two days after that final victory over the Bulgarians, Russia invaded and the task of reshaping the women’s game in Ukraine would go far beyond anything the Catalan native could have prepared for.
Within a week Cortés and his coaching team were advised to flee, the majority of his squad soon forced to follow, as the invasion began to spread across the country. The Ukranian Women’s Football Championship was abandoned just ten games in and human focus shifted to the preservation of life and home.
Knowing that football would eventually return Cortés and the Ukranian FA set about helping players find clubs across Europe. Of the squad selected for their double header against Scotland and Hungary players that would normally call Kharkiv, Kyiv and Mariupol their footballing homes were now strewn across the continent with Armenia, Iceland, Türkiye and Spain just some of the Ukranian national side’s new temporary abodes, for how long no-one knows, although there is hope that football within the country’s borders will soon return.
A squad that in February had been selected with 25 home-based players for the Turkish Cup contained just one this time round, goalkeeper Iryna Sanina, as Ukraine came together in Poland for the first time since war had begun on 16th June to prepare for a double header of games that will shape their own World Cup qualifying fate.
Focusing on the job in hand, a World Cup Down Under in 2023
The fact that Ukraine have been given the opportunity to compete for their place at next summer’s World Cup is important. Few things can provide a sense of belonging quite like football. It can also provide focus and hope. There is no doubting that Scotland will not only have to match, and look to exceed Ukranian on-field ability, but also compete with their spirit if they are to embark on a play-off journey that could see a return to the World Cup at the first time of asking.
The good news is, despite the on-field ups and downs this campaign has provided Pedro Martinéz Losa and his squad, Scotland’s play-off fate remains well within our own hands. Victory for Scotland in Rzezsów would leave both Ukraine and Hungary needing victories against each other plus from the winner’s respective away trip to Spain. Meanwhile Scotland will finish their campaign with a less daunting trip to face bottom of the group Faroe Islands, where anything other than victory in Torshavn would be a catastrophe.
A draw would keep Scotland in control, but would add an unnecessary level of trepidation as Group B enters its closing stages. Spain are the class of the group, they should end the campaign with 100% but with a Euros this summer and no guarantee as to how that tournament will pan out for Jorge Vilda’s side, victory on Friday will ensure the easiest possible passage to the play-off rounds.
So how can Scotland get the job done?
Friday’s opponents have talent but they can be got at and it’s easy to forget that Scotland dominated for long spells at Hampden when the two sides faced each other in November. Ukraine then followed up that result with defeat in Hungary. In both games the Scottish and Hungarian attacks looked to frequently exploit the area in behind the left back and broken down below are two such instances. The first a Scotland chance creation, the second a Hungarian goal, in both occasions it is left back Olha Basanska who has been at the centre of the action.
These are just two instances and the running of Grimshaw and Evans frequently stretched and turned the Ukranian back line. Scotland’s equaliser again came with Basanska caught underneath the ball after her centre back teammate was unable to clear the danger.
Unlike in the example above where the chance was allowed to fizzle out, substitute Lana Clelland finds time to cross the ball under weak recovery pressure from Basanska, finding Abi Harrison at the near post who glances home to help Scotland pick up a point. You can watch the goal below.
Harrison was a constant threat against the Ukranians with her ability to get the backline turned and the proficiency in which she got into scoring positions through a combination of pace and harrying is something that Martinéz Losa should take heart from even if the Bristol City forward will have been disappointed not to put away more than one of her chances.
In the Turkish Cup the modest abilities of both Uzbekistan and Bulgaria regularly succeeded in turning the Ukranian defence and causing concern. In the 2–0 win over Bulgaria Cortés played a much changed side, including a change in goal with Iryna Sanina taking the place of Daryna Bondarchuk, who is unavailable for these upcoming qualifiers.
Bondarchuk was Player of the Match at Hampden denying Scotland with a number of fine saves and the 24-year-old was an impressive organisational presence throughout. Against Bulgaria, albiet in a much changed side, Sanina played with a more chaotic air, regularly deploying herself as a sweeper-keeper. A high risk strategy that helped snuff out an early Bulgarian chance as the defence was turned by a ball over the top before later in the game a clearing header in the second half left her goal open for a lobbed effort (see 2:26 in the same clip below) that would hit the bar and bounce safely into Sanina’s arms, an escape of sorts on this occasion. Sanina may not play on Friday but whoever comes in the loss of Bondarchuk is significant.
How can Ukraine break down our defence?
Ukraine of course, did get a result at Hampden, and following that defeat to Hungary have won three games on the bounce, a run of form that has coincided with their nation’s most capped player, Dariya Apanaschenko, stepping back up into midfield having played as a centre back at Hampden.
Apanaschenko added experience to the Ukranian backline but her lack of pace often left her chasing Scottish attackers, but deployed further up the pitch against Hungary and in Türkiye she showed the threat she can possess.
She would score at both ends against Hungary and again against Uzbekistan, converting a header from a right-wing corner but it was a pass she made to release Hampden goalscorer Roksolana Kravchuk, that really caught the eye. In the short clip below Apanaschenko can be seen making three glances in as many seconds. One before receiving the ball, one on reciept of it and then one as she finally released it forward. The pass was simple, but the poise and vision to play it with the outside of the boot had all the hallmarks of a player who still possessed class in her 36-year-old boots.
Whilst captain Apanaschenko is coming to the end of her career, Canada-born 21-year-old, Nicole Kozlova is a rising star in yellow and blue. Kozlova, who has just won the Danish Kvindeliga with HB Køge, was absent for the draw at Hampden so her return to the fold will present a new challenge for the Scottish defence, particularly in wide areas.
In the Turkish Cup she played predominantly off the left, frequently cutting inside to create opportunities for herself and teammates. In this first example against Venezuela she easily rides a defending tackle before cutting inside and whipping a ball into the six yard area where Olha Ovdiychuk is able to sneak in for what would be the only goal of the game.
In the next game against Uzbekistan (see below) she would again cut in from the left, riding two tackles before executing a tidy one-two with Apanaschenko. Driving with pace she would then set herself free from three Uzbek defenders before releasing a shot that would ultimately zip over the bar. She may have been off target in this instance but she showed against Venezuela and Uzbekistan a willingness to try and try again in her pursuit of the inside line. That willingness to dribble and take out multiple players in a single phase is something for Scotland to consider should she start on Friday.
Summary
Scotland can get the result needed to all but secure our World Cup play-off place. Ukraine are a side that should be respected, even without the backdrop of a war that has seen their players repeatedly articulate their desire to get a victory for those back home. They are competent and organised and, with Kozlova’s return, in possession of a new attacking threat, but they can make mistakes and, on paper at least, Scotland are the better side.
How Pedro Martinéz Losa and his squad manage the occasion will be as relevant as any in-game preparations against a side who will be less passive on “home” turf. Get it right, and we head to Torshavn in September knowing that victory should confirm our play-off spot. Get it wrong, and it will be time to get the abacuses out. I believe we can get the job done, and you should too.
Scotland v Ukraine kicks off at 20:15 in Rzeszów which is 19:15 GMT and the game is live on BBC Alba.
One last thing…You can donate to the UNICEF Ukraine Fund to Protect Children at the link below, please consider a donation if you are able. Come Friday I want Scotland to win 17–0 but in life there are things much bigger than football. Ukranian children in particular have seen their futures flipped upside down in an instant, by donating you could help keep them safe.
Cheers for reading, peace over everything, and Mon’ eh Scotland!